In May 2019, our Research analysts published an Impact Series Report assessing the global effort to negate completely the amount of greenhouse gases produced by human activity, under the Paris Agreement of 2015. They came up with three basic scenarios and found that in the first, called “Dynamism,” the world would take the radical steps necessary to achieve net zero, or carbon neutrality, by 2050. In the second (“Development”), the world would fall some way short and in the third (“Deadlock”), a long way short.

So how is the world tracking today? The bad news is that progress is closer to Deadlock than Dynamism. Attempts to decarbonise have been sporadic and thwarted, at times, by a lack of political will. Policymakers have found it hard to prioritise a much cleaner energy mix at a time of heightened geopolitical unrest. Economies around the world are grappling with the challenge of ensuring that energy supplies are reliable and affordable, as well as environmentally friendly.

In order to hit targets, greater efforts are needed. Our analysts pinpoint five areas, in particular.

1. Reduce consumption, eliminate waste

The first, and perhaps most cost-effective, is a substantial reduction in energy intensity, defined as energy used per unit of economic output. The last decade has seen only small improvements on that front – and progress appears to have stalled completely a few years ago. Bringing those numbers down is a straightforward task, in theory: avoiding consumption and eliminating waste, and recycling where possible. But much more needs to be done to move to a lower-carbon pathway. Our analysts’ estimates of CO₂ saved through those methods range from about 30Gt a year in their Dynamism scenario – or about four-fifths of total energy-related emissions in 2022 – to just 5Gt in Deadlock.