The World Bank predicts that food insecurity will reach a new high in 2023 due to increased poverty and supply chain problems. Growing public debt and the possibility of a global recession could make food access and availability worse, especially for countries that import food. Issues like higher food prices, lower crop yields and food shortages are becoming more evident. As a result, countries are focusing more on their own food security rather than sustainability.

This is why it makes sense to take a back-to-basics approach that looks at the fundamental drivers of agriculture, like fertilisers and logistics, when considering investable trends.

Fertilisers help address food insecurity by improving nutrition and increasing crop yields. Ways to reduce fertiliser emissions include using alternative feedstocks, and moving from synthetic to bio-based and upcycled fertilisers. Better fertiliser use can also involve improved irrigation, crop rotation, and technologies like precision farming and digital marketplaces.

Logistics such as storage and transportation are important too. With growing trade volumes and food-deficit countries relying more on imports, trade and shipping bottlenecks are becoming more likely. Trade logistics struggle to adapt to geopolitical changes, like the war in Ukraine. Although regional supply chains could help in the long run, a chronic lack of investment in infrastructure causes issues like delivery delays.