Barclays Research today released the 71st edition of the Equity Gilt Study, a flagship annual publication that combines market-leading macro analysis with a unique multi-asset data set spanning over 100 years. In this year’s report, our Research analysts examine how physical AI’s roll out could affect not just labour, but the wider macroeconomic landscape.
Humanoid robots: the next frontier of automation
Humanoid robots, enabled by advances in artificial intelligence, mobility, and battery systems, are designed to operate in human environments; use existing tools; and perform full jobs, rather than isolated tasks. As the costs of producing the robots decline and deployment accelerates, Barclays Research estimates the market for humanoids could reach $200 billion by 2035, reshaping labour supply, productivity, and investment opportunities across the global economy.
China leads in robotics
Supported by unmatched scale in manufacturing, deep supply chains, and state-backed industrial policy, China accounted for 85 percent of humanoid deployments in 2025. If current trends persist, Barclays Research estimates that robots could fill up to 60 percent of the workforce gap created by China’s aging population by 2035, helping sustain economic growth and reinforcing robotics as a key pillar of its economic and geopolitical strength.
How robotics will rewire economies
Automation has long supported productivity growth, but its effect has largely been limited to specific tasks. Humanoid robots extend automation not just to entire roles, but to those that until now could not be automated. Historically, strong productivity gains in sectors such as manufacturing coincided with a declining share of GDP, while more labour-intensive sectors expanded, a pattern known as the Baumol effect. By increasing the substitutability between labour and capital in tasks that have resisted automation, humanoids could ease these constraints and help shift that dynamic. Barclays Research also notes that more than 60 percent of employment in 2018 was in roles that did not exist in 1940, suggesting humanoids are likely to reshape, rather than reduce, the future of work.
Will physical AI’s displacement effects hurt asset prices?
Physical AI is not a zero-sum shock and markets may be underestimating its positive effect. By expanding the production frontier, rather than simply redistributing income, humanoid robots strengthen the case for higher productivity, higher equilibrium real rates, stronger earnings growth, and improved long-term asset returns. While adoption will reshape labour income and shift sectoral winners and losers, the overall effect is likely to be positive for growth and markets.
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