How polarisation affects the 150 trends

This polarised backdrop will have a varied impact on the roadmap. While some trends face near-term headwinds, others will show long-term resilience. Over the next decade, investors​ should assess portfolios with these considerations in mind:​

Selectivity replaces breadth: Previously, global breadth was an advantage, offering more exposure to growth. However, it may now be better to embrace regional nuances and localised supply chains. This may challenge trends such as Semiconductors 3.0, where standards may diverge from the prior assumption of global consensus or safe manufacturing havens.

Near-term resilience takes priority: Sustainability is increasingly being balanced against near‑term resilience considerations, decoupling it from certain trends. Take Artificial Intelligence. This was closely linked to sustainability in our last roadmap, but AI infrastructure’s hunger for power may drive both Fossil Fuel Resurgence and Renewable Energy in the short term, even though the two trends appear to be ​​​​​at odds​​​.​

A widening automation gap: A ​productivity divide will separate digital-first adopters from ​laggards,​ and emerging from developed economies. This disparity will have a significant social impact. For instance, as automation becomes more prevalent, trends that focus on reskilling, including Lifelong Learning and Education Technology​,​ will grow in importance. Meanwhile, Social Credit may become necessary to deal with the economic fallout of workforce displacement. 

Industrial bifurcation amid policy asymmetry: Government policy could dictate winners and losers in certain industries. Trends with exposure to advanced manufacturing, domestic re-shoring and tech infrastructure will likely benefit from increased government support. ​​I​n contrast, industries that are unsupported or even penalised may lag. ​​For​ example, there is varying policy support for Battery Recycling between the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU Green Deal. This divergence creates opportunities for investors who can navigate these discrepancies.