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RESEARCH | MACRO SHIFTS

Demographic trends point to structural issues in labour supply

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Silvia Ardagna, Marc Giannoni, Jonathan Millar

As populations in certain developed economies age, their working behaviours are also shifting. These changes are fundamentally altering labour supply, prompting governments to consider how and when to intervene to avoid a potential slowing of GDP. Our Research team has examined the important signals within this long-term trend in six nations.

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About the analysts

Silvia Ardagna

Managing Director and Head of European Economics Research

Silvia Ardagna is a Managing Director and Head of European Economics Research. Based in London, Silvia leads the team covering the Euro area countries and some of the small open European economies. Silvia joined Barclays in 2021 from Goldman Sachs, where she was a managing director in the Investment Strategy Group in the Consumer and Investment Management Division and in Global Investment Research from 2012 to 2021. Prior to joining the private sector, Silvia was an associate professor at the Department of Economics of Harvard University from 2004 to 2010. She has been visiting fellow at the European Central Bank and The International Monetary Fund and she is a leading expert in the area of fiscal policy. Her academic research has been published in top refereed journals and has been influential in shaping the policy debate around fiscal issues. Silvia earned a BA and MA in Economics from Bocconi University and a PhD from Boston College. She is married and has two sons.

Marc Giannoni

Managing Director and Chief US Economist

Marc Giannoni is a Managing Director and Chief US Economist at Barclays. Prior to joining Barclays in 2022, Marc held positions at the Federal Reserve banks, as SVP and Research Director at Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2017-22) and Research Economist at Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2000-02, 2011-17). He was also an Associate Professor at Columbia Business School (2002-10). Marc is a native of Switzerland and began his career as an economist with the Swiss National Bank in Zurich. Marc’s research focuses on broad macroeconomic and policy issues, including monetary policy strategies, the transmission of monetary policy, interest rates and inflation determination, and labor markets. He co-led a team that developed the analytical work underlying the review of the Federal Reserve monetary policy framework released in August 2020. Marc holds a BA and MA degrees in economics from the University of Geneva in Switzerland and MA and PhD degrees in economics from Princeton University.

Jonathan Millar

Director and Senior US Economist

Jonathan Millar is a Director and Senior US Economist at Barclays in New York. He contributes to the US economics outlook and has expertise in a number of subject areas, including monetary policy, productivity, business investment and the industrial sector. Prior to Barclays, Jonathan was a Principal Economist at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC., where he coordinated the staff macroeconomic outlook, served as an expert in housing and business investment, and headed a group that assessed the financial stability implications of proposed bank mergers. He also spent two years in Paris as an economist with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), where he wrote country surveys for the United States and Iceland. Prior to these roles, Jonathan had positions the Bank of Canada and the IMF. Jonathan earned his Doctorate in Economics from the University of Michigan and holds Masters Degrees in Economics (UBC) and Financial Engineering (Michigan).

Abbas Khan

Assistant Vice President in Macro Research

Abbas Khan is an Assistant Vice President within the Macro Research group at Barclays, working on the UK Economics team. He is based in London and joined the firm as a graduate in 2019. Abbas holds a BA with Honours from the University of Cambridge.

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