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    RESEARCH | THE FLIP SIDE | EPISODE 55
    Can the US economy outrun a recession?
    Jeff Meli Marc Giannoni
    Contributors: Jeff Meli & Marc Giannoni

    06 Jul 2023

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    Despite many predictions from forecasters, including our own analysts, the US economy has so far staved off a widely anticipated recession.

    However, after 16 months of rate hikes, the Fed’s 2% inflation target may now be harder to achieve without a downturn. Inflation is persistent and sluggish in services, which are less reliant on imports and less sensitive to rate rises, unlike core goods. Coupled with a tighter labour market, will the situation catch up with the economy?

    In episode 55 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Chief US Economist Marc Giannoni discuss the warning signs for a potential US recession and whether it can be avoided or if a new cycle is already taking shape.

    Authorised clients can access our latest research on the topic by reading our Q3 2023 Global Outlook on Barclays Live.

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    About the experts

    Jeff Meli

    Global Head of Research, Barclays

    Jeff Meli is Global Head of Research at Barclays, based in New York. Jeff joined Barclays in 2005 as the Head of US Structured Credit Strategy and has held a number of other senior positions in the research department, including Head of Credit Research and co-Head of FICC Research. Jeff spearheaded the firm’s response to regulatory changes in Research, including MiFID II, and has revamped the department’s approach to content monetisation. Jeff leads the development of the Research Data Science Platform, tasked with integrating new data sets and modern data techniques into investment research. He writes regularly about special topics in credit markets, liquidity, and financial market regulation and hosts The Flip Side, a podcast covering current events in finance and macroeconomics. Previously, he worked at Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan, with a focus on structured credit. Jeff has a PhD in Finance from the University of Chicago and an AB in Mathematics from Princeton.

    Marc Giannoni

    Chief US Economist, Barclays

    Marc Giannoni is a Managing Director and Chief US Economist at Barclays. Prior to joining Barclays in 2022, Marc held positions at the Federal Reserve banks, as SVP and Research Director at Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2017-22) and Research Economist at Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2000-02, 2011-17). He was also an Associate Professor at Columbia Business School (2002-10). Marc is a native of Switzerland and began his career as an economist with the Swiss National Bank in Zurich. Marc’s research focuses on broad macroeconomic and policy issues, including monetary policy strategies, the transmission of monetary policy, interest rates and inflation determination, and labor markets. He co-led a team that developed the analytical work underlying the review of the Federal Reserve monetary policy framework released in August 2020. Marc holds a BA and MA degrees in economics from the University of Geneva in Switzerland and MA and PhD degrees in economics from Princeton University.

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