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RESEARCH  |  UK Autumn Budget 2025

UK Autumn Budget: A test of credibility

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Contributor: Moyeen Islam

The Autumn Budget is a key test of UK fiscal credibility amid sceptical markets. Bond-market discipline has returned, with high deficits and inflation pressuring yields. Structural issues, not statistics, drive concerns. Credibility hinges on realistic, politically deliverable fiscal choices and coherent policy, according to our Research team.

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About the experts

Moyeen Islam

Moyeen Islam

Interest Rates Strategist

Moyeen Islam is a Director and Interest Rates Strategist covering European Fixed Income Strategy, based in London. Moyeen joined the European Fixed Income Research team in 2004. Between 2000-2004, he was a senior economist in the Macroeconomic Policy and International Finance Directorate in HM Treasury covering debt management policy and government borrowing strategy as well as policy issues surrounding the wider management of the liability side of central government’s balance sheet. In the earlier part of his public sector career, he worked for six years within the Government Economic Service in three different government departments. In this period, he had a variety of responsibilities including analysis of Latin America economies, sovereign credit issues, global oil and oil product markets and reform of European downstream power markets. He has represented the UK government at a variety of international meetings including the OECD/IMF committees and workshops and has had extensive experience of negotiating European directives. Moyeen studied economics at University College, London and Manchester University.

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