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RESEARCH | GLOBAL OUTLOOK

Q3 2026 Global Outlook: Solid fundamentals, fewer bargains

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Lead contributor: Ajay Rajadhyaksha

The global expansion will continue, with the US as the engine of growth, Barclays Research analysts think. But with stock markets near new highs and bond markets weighed down by rising government debt loads, it is harder to find good bargains, they argue.

A zebra amongst a herd of buffalo, a metaphor for how good bargains are hard to see.

Key takeaways 

 

  1. The global economy should grow 3.1% in 2026, slightly below 2025 but still going strong.
  2. Strength from the US and East Asia is likely to offset weakness in Europe and China.
  3. Inflation is likely to remain above target in most major economies, forcing central banks to hike or hold rates higher for longer.
  4. Barclays Research remains overweight equities over fixed income, with far less conviction than in Q2 2026.
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CHAPTERS

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About the experts

Ajay Rajadhyaksha

Ajay Rajadhyaksha

Global Chairman of Research

Ajay Rajadhyaksha is Global Chairman of Research at Barclays, based in New York. He drives the global macro research and strategy effort, including economics, rates, FX, commodities, emerging markets, and asset allocation. Since joining Barclays in 2005, Ajay has held various positions, including Head of Macro Research, Co-Head of FICC Research and, before that, Head of US Fixed Income Research and US and European Securitised Research.

Marc Giannoni

Marc Giannoni

Chief US Economist

Marc P. Giannoni is a Managing Director and Chief US Economist at Barclays. Prior to joining Barclays in 2022, Marc held positions at the Federal Reserve banks, as SVP and Research Director at Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2017-22) and Research Economist at Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2000-02, 2011-17). He was also an Associate Professor at Columbia Business School (2002-10). Marc is a native of Switzerland and began his career as an economist with the Swiss National Bank in Zurich. Marc’s research focuses on broad macroeconomic and policy issues, including monetary policy strategies, the transmission of monetary policy, interest rates and inflation determination, and labor markets. He co-led a team that developed the analytical work underlying the review of the Federal Reserve monetary policy framework released in August 2020. Marc holds BA and MA degrees in economics from the University of Geneva in Switzerland and MA and PhD degrees in economics from Princeton University.

Silvia Ardagna

Silvia Ardagna

Head of European Economics Research

Silvia Ardagna is a Managing Director and Head of European Economics Research. Based in London, Silvia leads the team covering the Euro area countries and some of the small open European economies. Silvia joined Barclays in 2021 from Goldman Sachs, where she was a managing director in the Investment Strategy Group in the Consumer and Investment Management Division and in Global Investment Research from 2012 to 2021. Prior to joining the private sector, Silvia was an associate professor at the Department of Economics of Harvard University from 2004 to 2010. She has been visiting fellow at the European Central Bank and The International Monetary Fund and she is a leading expert in the area of fiscal policy. Her academic research has been published in top refereed journals and has been influential in shaping the policy debate around fiscal issues. Silvia earned a BA and MA in Economics from Bocconi University and a PhD from Boston College. She is married and has two sons.

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