Which scenario may win out?

It would depend on policy and consumer choices, but the model highlights the key benefits and challenges stakeholders need to consider in order to achieve a successful EV rollout, without collapsing the energy grid.

Notably, the model reveals that personal EVs alone represent enough storage capacity to make California’s current power consumption 100% green, and that even a conventional approach of using natural gas to serve increased energy demand from EVs would lower the state’s carbon footprint by removing gasoline-powered cars from the road.

They estimate that Californians would need to spend $50-150bn in infrastructure investments to make the transition over the next 20 years, depending on the scenario. But in every case, Californians could potentially save $300bn in gasoline costs in the first 20 years of 100% electric driving.

Whether EVs are ultimately a net benefit or cost hinges on a complex interplay of policy, consumer behaviour, and technology. Yet it appears inevitable that a compromise will have to be made, depending on what issues and factors policy makers, industry leaders and consumers choose to prioritise.